Project summary:
As population increases and climate changes, agricultural productivity improvement demands new approaches which, apart from addressing these challenges, should also aim at protecting both the environment and functioning of ecosystem while enhancing the capabilities of communities to attaining sustainable development. It is in this light under which the Agricultural Model inter- comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was formulated.
Objectives:
The objectives for Tanzanian component are as follows:
- To generate and corroborate climate data for baseline and future scenarios in the Wami sub-basin;
- To calibrate and validate crop models and simulate crop growth and development for baseline and future climate (mid- century and end-century) for identified livelihood zones;
- To determine the impacts of changes in productivity of several enterprises on income and food security.
Key finding
The study has shown that in the absence of robust adaptation and transformative development trajectories, maize yields are projected to decrease by between 5% and 42%from the baseline. Such negative impacts on yields will translate into increased poverty rates. The developmental and transformative trajectories will modestly mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change crop yields and welfare of farming households in the absence of robust adaptations. Adoption of robust adaptations – increased used of fertilizer and optimal spacing – reduced the negative impacts of climate change.
Output
Use of AgMIP protocols and models (APSIM, DSSAT and TOA-MD models).
Participating Institutions
Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) Tanzania Meteorlogical Agency (TMA) Institute of Rural Development and Planning (IRDP)
